Neuruh - Evidence-first underwriting - Engine E10

Short-Term / Mid-Term Rental Engine

E10. Legality, occupancy and ADR with source, seasonality, furnishing budget, LTR fallback rent, break-even, cash flow, regulation risk, and STR / MTR / LTR choice with reasoning.

Versionv1.0
Date2026-11-04
StatusEngine E10 of 12 - Active
LineageCodex V2 App. B, E10 + Residential v1.1 gates + E1 pattern + E13 Risk / Kill-Switch
Not an appraisal. Not legal, tax, or lending advice. Public-data underwriting only. Verify zoning, HOA rules, and the local short-term rental ordinance with the county, the municipality, and a licensed professional before closing. No offer without Jeramie. Offer authorized is false on every run unless a human approval record is attached.

00Try it in 60 seconds

Three steps. No sign-up, no data leaves your browser.

  1. Step 1: Load Sample A with the button below.
  2. Step 2: Change Peak ADR in section 03.
  3. Step 3: Watch annual gross, break-even occupancy, and monthly cash flow move in the sticky panel and in section 08.
Annual STR grossN/A
STR monthly cash flowN/A
Break-even occupancyN/A
RecommendationHOLD
Completeness 0 percent
Missing fields are listed in section 11.

01Subject property and address / parcel gate

Address and parcel must be verified against at least 2 public sources before any number is used. Unverified means HOLD.

02Legality: zoning, HOA, and local ordinance

Legality is checked before revenue. A seller-stated STR permission is a claim, not a fact. Verify from the zoning map, the HOA documents, and the ordinance text.

03Occupancy and ADR, with source, and seasonality

ADR needs at least 2 independent sources. ADR from a single platform estimate is a kill condition, not a low-confidence number. Occupancy needs a named source too. Seasonality is entered in days so the year sums to 365.

Primary ADR (average of sources present)N/A
Primary occupancy (average of sources present)N/A
ADR sources counted0
Annual gross, primary method (ADR x occupancy x 365)N/A
SeasonDaysOccupancy (%)ADR ($/night)Booked nightsRevenue ($)
PeakN/AN/A
ShoulderN/AN/A
Off-peakN/AN/A
Season days total (must be 365)N/A
Total booked nights (seasonal)N/A
Annual STR gross (seasonal method)N/A
Blended ADR (seasonal gross / booked nights)N/A
Blended occupancy (booked nights / 365)N/A
Gross method usedN/A
Figure 1. Seasonal revenue split. Bars update from the seasonality table above. Peak, shoulder, and off-peak revenue are shown as dollars, not as a forecast of demand.
Peak Shoulder Off-peak N/A N/A N/A

04Furnishing budget

Furnishing is an upfront cash cost, not a monthly rent assumption. Enter each line from a bid, a quote, or a priced list, or mark it N/A. The total is the sum of the lines. Amortisation uses a 60 month useful life, stated as an assumption.

Furnishing total (upfront)N/A
Furnishing amortisation ($/month, total / 60)N/A
Total cash invested (down + closing + furnishing)N/A

05Monthly operating costs and STR variable costs

Fixed costs are monthly costs that do not change with bookings. Platform, management, and cleaning are variable and are calculated from revenue and booked nights. PITI is entered as a monthly number; this tool does not compute a mortgage payment.

Fixed monthly costs (incl. furnishing amortisation)N/A
Fixed monthly costs, excl. furnishing amortisationN/A
Turnovers per year (booked nights / avg stay)N/A
Annual cleaning cost (STR)N/A
Annual platform feesN/A
Annual management feesN/A

06LTR fallback rent and MTR rent

The LTR fallback is what the property earns if STR is banned, capped, or underperforms. MTR is 30+ day furnished stays. Both are calculated on their own costs, not on STR costs.

LTR annual gross (rent x 12 x (1 - vacancy))N/A
LTR annual costs (PITI + LTR insurance + maintenance)N/A
LTR annual cash flowN/A
LTR monthly cash flowN/A
MTR annual gross (rent x 12 x occupancy)N/A
MTR annual costs (fixed incl. amortisation + MTR cleaning)N/A
MTR annual cash flowN/A
MTR monthly cash flowN/A

07Break-even

Break-even is solved from fixed costs and the variable rates, not guessed. Cleaning is a variable cost per booked night through turnovers.

Break-even monthly revenue = Fixed monthly / (1 - platform rate - management rate - cleaning factor)
Cleaning factor = Cleaning per turnover / (Blended ADR x Average stay)
Break-even occupancy = Break-even monthly revenue / (Blended ADR x 30.4167)
Break-even nights per month = Break-even monthly revenue / Blended ADR
Variable rate (platform + management)N/A
Cleaning factorN/A
Break-even monthly revenueN/A
Break-even occupancyN/A
Break-even nights per monthN/A
Margin: blended occupancy minus break-even occupancyN/A

08Cash flow: STR, Year 1 and stabilized

Stabilized cash flow uses furnishing amortisation. Year 1 cash flow uses the upfront furnishing total instead of amortisation, so Year 1 is lower by design.

Annual STR gross (method in section 03)N/A
Annual STR costs, stabilized (fixed x 12 + platform + management + cleaning)N/A
Stabilized annual cash flowN/A
Stabilized monthly cash flowN/A
Stabilized cash-on-cash (annual cash flow / total cash invested)N/A
Year 1 annual cash flow (upfront furnishing, no amortisation)N/A
Year 1 monthly cash flowN/A
Year 1 cash-on-cashN/A
Figure 2. Monthly cash flow by strategy. Bars update from sections 06 and 08. Negative bars are shown as zero height with the negative value printed beside the label.
STR monthly MTR monthly LTR monthly N/A N/A N/A

09Regulation risk

Check every risk that applies. Regulation risk does not change the math, it changes whether the math can be relied on.

Regulation risk flags counted0
Risk flagsNone

10STR / MTR / LTR choice, with reasoning

Choice rule, stated before the result: the winner is the highest stabilized monthly cash flow among STR, MTR, and LTR, unless a kill fires (then PASS, section 13) or STR wins with 3 or more regulation risk flags (then the next best strategy is recommended and the STR win is flagged as high risk). The reasoning below is generated from the numbers, not written by hand.

STR stabilized monthly cash flowN/A
MTR monthly cash flowN/A
LTR monthly cash flowN/A
Recommended strategyN/A

11Gates, fail closed, and completeness

Any gate at fail or hold shows HOLD. Do not round a hold up to a pass.

Gate statusHOLD - gates not verified
Gates passedNone
Gates failed or heldAll
0 percent complete.

13E13 Risk / Kill-Switch

Every engine ends here. A kill is a successful run, not a failed one. If any kill fires, the recommendation is PASS, explicitly.

Kill conditions fired (manual + automatic)None
Kill-switch activeNo
Risk flags (from section 09)None
RecommendationHOLD

12One-page summary - print this

The deal on one page. Print this section for the file copy. It updates live from the inputs above.

AddressN/A
Parcel IDN/A
STR legal statusN/A
Annual STR grossN/A
Blended ADR / occupancyN/A
Break-even occupancyN/A
STR monthly cash flow (stabilized)N/A
MTR monthly cash flowN/A
LTR monthly cash flowN/A
Furnishing totalN/A
Recommended strategyN/A
Confidence0.50
GatesHOLD
RecommendationHOLD

14Receipt

Generated from the inputs above. Offer authorized is always false in this tool. The receipt is evidence, not an offer.

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15How it works / What this is not

How it works: confirm the parcel from at least 2 public sources, verify STR legality from zoning, HOA documents, and the ordinance, collect ADR from at least 2 independent sources, enter seasonality in days, price furnishing line by line, enter fixed and variable costs, and let the tool compute blended ADR, annual gross, break-even occupancy, STR Year 1 and stabilized cash flow, MTR cash flow, and LTR fallback cash flow from the exact formulas on the page. The choice in section 10 follows the stated rule. A share link encodes the whole deal in the URL hash so someone else can open the same numbers in their own browser. Nothing is uploaded.

What this is not: not an appraisal, not a survey, not legal, tax, or lending advice, and not a guarantee of occupancy, ADR, rent, or a sale. It does not invent comps, zoning, prices, or ordinance text. If a field cannot be verified, it stays N/A. A high STR cash flow does not mean a deal is good, and a PASS does not mean a property is bad. It means the evidence in this run does not support proceeding as an STR on the stated terms. No offer is quoted without Jeramie.

Honest gaps and limits. This tool does not compute a mortgage payment; PITI is entered as a monthly number. It does not pull live platform data, AirDNA data, or county records; every ADR, occupancy, rent, and legality fact is entered by hand with a source. Seasonality uses the entered days and rates only and does not model events, new supply, or platform algorithm changes. Furnishing amortisation uses a flat 60 month life, which is an assumption, not a tax rule. Cleaning cost assumes turnovers equal booked nights divided by average stay. MTR and LTR costs are simplified and do not include vacancy loss beyond the entered LTR vacancy or MTR occupancy, leasing fees, or eviction cost. Layout was not eyeballed in a real browser. Related modules: Real Estate Agent hub, Residential Underwriting Engine, E1 Land and Zoning Unlock.

16System prompt

The E10 system prompt text is embedded in this file for copying. Use the Copy system prompt button above. It is not sent anywhere by this tool.

Show system prompt text